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Mike Newman commented on a news article - Nov 21 2014, 12:14 AM
Agreed... the question will be how much will Fisher beat Maton at San Diego?
By Doug Binder, DyeStat Editor The Boys Top 30, 11/20 ...
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13 comment(s)  
dkap
It's similar to the team rankings, where Summit's boys are near the top despite the fact they won't have Maton for NXN. In both cases, the rank is based on what has been done so far this season, not what might happen once a few variables are changed. I personally feel you never discount a defending champ, but I also think both sides of the argument are equally valid and the rankings approach is consistent.

Dan
watchout

King999, on , said:

Bill, I have a great respect for what you guys do , but in this case this is a HUGE NO Way, No How, sorry.

You have a guy whp presumably beat guys of this level at least last year and is undefeated this year winning easily every race and he gets dropped? Sorry Speed ratings, any formulas, do not get to supercede competitive record and past performace, not yet anyway.

If he tanked at Regions? Maybe.

But, sorry, I could not agree with your logic ever on this, we would just have to disagree on this one.

And I am not even saying he IS th best, ONLY that you cannot get dropped , after you won the title last year and have never lost or even close this year?



I can definitely see both sides of the argument. Essentially, this is a +1 to Meylan's post, as I find little to disagree with his points (aside from maybe pointing out that Dressel is at least as fast as last year, since he mentioned the rest of the top FLN returners being faster as well). It's late in the 2014 season, there are other undefeated runners out there - all who are running well - and others who have been beaten but have still been running better than Fisher. IMO, there are 8 guys with legitimate cases for US#1 (Ostberg, Maton, Anderson, Fisher, Hacker, Hunter Tamagno and Reiser). Plus another (Mantz) if he returns to his mid-season form. That's not to say those guys are the top 8/9 in the nation - guys like Dressel, Pollard, Millar, Brannigan, Roberts, Thomet, Alhamra, Khosla and maybe even a couple others can all challenge for a Top-5 finish.

Just because Fisher won FLN last year, and hasn't faced anyone yet (or gone all-out yet) doesn't mean he HAS to be ranked US#1. He's never beaten Anderson, he barely beat Dressel at FLN, and he wasn't head and shoulders above everyone in track (though he was the best distance guy in track, just not by some absurd margin that the rest of the nation couldn't overcome with a better summer/fall of training). COULD he be US#1? Of course - he's undefeated and won FLN last year. But others have done all they can to earn that US#1 spot as well, and you can't deny credit to them just because Fisher hasn't raced anyone.
King999
Bill, I have a great respect for what you guys do , but in this case this is a HUGE NO Way, No How, sorry.

You have a guy whp presumably beat guys of this level at least last year and is undefeated this year winning easily every race and he gets dropped? Sorry Speed ratings, any formulas, do not get to supercede competitive record and past performace, not yet anyway.

If he tanked at Regions? Maybe.

But, sorry, I could not agree with your logic ever on this, we would just have to disagree on this one.

And I am not even saying he IS th best, ONLY that you cannot get dropped , after you won the title last year and have never lost or even close this year?
Bill Meylan

King999, on , said:

Seriously? With all due respect I find it incredulous that anyone could rank the returning and undefeated this year 2013 FL Champion ANY lower than ONE!!

There is no logic possible to rank anyone above him, nor is it necessary to over handicap what looks like might happen OR COULD>

The guy won last year, returns and is UNBEATEN.And now he is ranked 4th? In what world does stuff like this occur in?


I suspect many people agree with your opinion concerning the ability of Grant Fisher and where they might "rank" him relative to the other top runners ... If all the top guys toed-the-line today, and their betting odds were all equal, I would probably bet Grant Fisher.

BUT ... Doug's ranking appears to be based primarily on XC performance during the 2014 XC season ... and in that regard, I tend to agree with Doug and his current placement.

Just my opinion ... Matthew Maton, Alex Ostberg, Tanner Anderson and Andrew Hunter have all turned in recent XC performances at a higher level than anything Grant Fisher has shown during the 2014 XC season ... I think Fisher is definitely capable of doing better when necessary, but he has not done it this entire season while the other guys have ... and at this late point in the season, I would rank runners based on what they have done as opposed to my subjective opinion.

As a handicapper looking for a bet (I take longer odds that have a legitimate shot whenever possible), I would consider this .... Besides Fisher, the other top retuning Footlocker runners (Maton and Ostberg) have clearly shown they are better this season than last year, and so has Tanner Anderson ... In my opinion, all three have performed at level equal to or better than Fisher's Footlocker winning performance (which is Fisher's best XC performance ever) ... I think Grant Fisher will need a PR performance at Footlocker Nationals in order to win.
King999
Seriously? With all due respect I find it incredulous that anyone could rank the returning and undefeated this year 2013 FL Champion ANY lower than ONE!!

There is no logic possible to rank anyone above him, nor is it necessary to over handicap what looks like might happen OR COULD>

The guy won last year, returns and is UNBEATEN.And now he is ranked 4th? In what world does stuff like this occur in?
ORXCCoach
He is no longer on the list above, but Daniel Boone's Adam Barnard ran 9:01.11 last night at the KYA Postseason 3200 Time Trial with a slight negative split. I'd put him down as a favorite to take NXN-SE.
runningwithkids
Doug, agree w/ your assessment and like what you've done w/ the polls. Thank you for the research, analytics and transparency. We'll know more after NXN and FL regionals.
DougB
I'm not sure who I like to win the Foot Locker match-up at this point, honestly.

Fisher is the defending champ and I believe he's better than he was last year. I have no reason to doubt that his training is going well or that he'll be well-prepared. I like his coach. But I'm not convinced that he's head and shoulders above his peers either. And I think the quality of fitness we're seeing from Maton, Ostberg, Hunter and Dressel could put any one of them in position to win that race. I think it may take 14:55 or better to win it this year.

This week's list was not easy to come up with. The easy way out might have to create ties up at the top, but that would be lame.

Fisher is really really good but he didn't kill it at his state meet the way top three did. (And for that matter, Hunter as well).

So yeah, no doubt Fisher's best stuff is yet to come.

As far as NXN goes, Anderson is the clear favorite.
runningwithkids
FL Nats will be battle of Stanford's top 2 recruits. Maton 3rd.
hedyd4u
Grant Fisher, still my #1 for the one reason he never seems to lose. Great times are just that great times, but wins are better than great times. When the competition gets tough I want the guy who knows how to win not set course records.
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Mike Newman commented on a news article - Nov 21 2014, 12:11 AM
Lindsay Graham runs 16:23 at the Illinois State meet, the fifth fastest time ever on that course, and she is on the bubble? Wow.
By Doug Binder, DyeStat Editor The Girls Top 30, 11/20 ...
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2 comment(s)  
DougB
It was a tough week. Graham could be in that 25-30 range but so could a handful of others.
Mike Newman
Lindsay Graham runs 16:23 at the Illinois State meet, the fifth fastest time ever on that course, and she is on the bubble? Wow.
 
Mike Newman commented on a news article - Nov 17 2014, 12:32 PM
Community and Kids Races - You would have to contact timingmd.com who did the timing for the meet yesterday. It was announced that those results would be on that site. I checked and there were no links for those two races.
NXN Midwest Regional MEET DATE & LOCATION11.16.2014LaVern Gibson Championship XC CourseTerre Haute, IN ...
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8 comment(s)  
Mike Newman
Community and Kids Races - You would have to contact timingmd.com who did the timing for the meet yesterday. It was announced that those results would be on that site. I checked and there were no links for those two races.
goprefontaine
Where are the results for the community and kids races?
ross
They are now posted.
hollyhitchcockwilson
Where are the results for the Girls' Championship?
Shane
I can see them posted above. Try using your browsers search. Example: In Firefox, use Ctrl + F, and then type in "girls championship" and you will be able to find them.
Mike Newman
Weather is good here at Lavern Gibson - 32 degrees with 4 mph sw unnoticeable breeze. Course is in good shape.
bhamrunner
Will there be a live webcast like last year?
ross
 
Mike Newman commented on a news article - Nov 16 2014, 03:25 PM
Weather is good here at Lavern Gibson - 32 degrees with 4 mph sw unnoticeable breeze. Course is in good shape.
The 2014 NXN Midwest Regional will be broadcast live from Terre Haute, Indiana on Sunday, November 16 via the NXN Midwest website. Details are below. WATCH HERE ...
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Mike Newman
Weather is good here at Lavern Gibson - 32 degrees with 4 mph sw unnoticeable breeze. Course is in good shape.
 
Mike Newman commented on a news article - Nov 15 2014, 11:24 PM
NXN Northwest Regional MEET DATE & LOCATION11.15.2014Eagle Island XC CourseBoise, ID ...
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DontStopPre
How funny that it was posted under the wrong region!? Funny? Well, sorta funny. Times are soooo slow. Looks like if you didn't get out and run in the top 15 you were "screwed". Some of the top times in the varsity race faired well against 20+ times in the championship race. Like I said, if you didn't get out, you got screwed. Wow am I impressed with Tanner though. a BEAST!!!!
cmprun
Thanks everyone! Hope your teams and people had a good day!
mace6223
http://nxnmw.runners...&news_id=298524 Posted under Midwest results... LOL
DontStopPre
Washington's state meet also had updates each mile and much more than that actually. you could ask the blogger a question and he would answer it. And NXR Midwest had a live video feed again this year ... looks like somebody in Boise just felt that we didn't need to get a feed this year. Booooooo to him I say!
Susan Lorenzen
Uh - I wouldn't get too excited about Wash state meet in Pasco. They changed runner's places and runner's times multiple times hours after the race. Not acceptable.
lukelebron6
Who are the individual qualifiers on the mens side?
MontanaRunner
Anyone know what company is failing to post the results here?
spokie_runner
And by "see" I mean hear about someday if results are ever posted in any forum anywhere....
cpetpe
The pony express rider has a cold. Results will be here tomorrow.
spokie_runner
Would have been nice to see Maton and Tanner Anderson square off in Boise then Portland. Oh well...
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Mike Newman posted a video - Nov 2 2014, 09:01 PM
Mike Newman talks to Jack Carroll of Loyola Academy after he won the Boys Race at the IHSA 3A Niles West Sectional - Skokie IL - November 1, 2014
 
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Mike Newman posted a video - Nov 2 2014, 08:30 PM
Mike Newman talks to Lauren Van Vlierbergen of Jacobs HS after she ran 17:08 to win the IHSA 3A chaumburg Sectional Girls Race - Schaumburg IL - November 1, 2014
 
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Mike Newman posted a video - Oct 12 2014, 01:55 AM
Mike Newman talks to Gabby Juarez of Streamwood HS after she ran 17:33 for 3 miles to win the Girls Varsity Race at the West Aurora Stampede - Stuart Sports Complex, Montgomery IL - October 11, 2014
 
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Monday Morning Finish Line - November 3, 2014 - 3A State Edition
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Jack Carroll of Loyola Academy wins the 2014 IHSA 3A Niles West Sectional Boys Race - DyeStat Illinois
Lauren Van Vlierbergen of Jacobs HS wins the 2014 3A Schaumburg Sectional Girls Race - DyeStat Illinois

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